SG Micro Corp(300661) 华安证券·2024-11-07 06:14Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for the company [1][2] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 2.445 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 29.96%, with net profit attributable to the parent company reaching 285 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 100.57% [2] - Gross margin improved to 52.17%, up 1.63 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Q3 revenue was 868 million yuan, up 2.48% quarter-on-quarter and 18.52% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 106 million yuan, up 102.74% year-on-year [2] - The company's new product launches, including high-side current detection operational amplifiers and automotive-grade high-speed low-side driver chips, are strengthening its competitive advantage [2] - Texas Instruments' reduction in CAPEX guidance from 2-5 billion by 2026 has alleviated market concerns about competitive pressures [2] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected to be 3.215 billion yuan, 4.048 billion yuan, and 5.146 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.9%, 25.9%, and 27.1% [3][5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 415 million yuan, 777 million yuan, and 1.095 billion yuan for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 47.9%, 87.2%, and 40.8% [3][5] - Gross margin is forecasted to increase from 50.0% in 2024E to 53.6% in 2026E [3][5] - ROE is projected to rise from 9.3% in 2024E to 17.3% in 2026E [3][5] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratios for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 105x, 56x, and 40x, respectively [2][3] - P/B ratios are expected to be 9.79x, 8.34x, and 6.90x for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively [3][5] - EV/EBITDA ratios are projected at 82.05x, 45.44x, and 32.18x for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively [3][5] Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - Operating cash flow is expected to grow significantly, from 686 million yuan in 2024E to 1.695 billion yuan in 2026E [4] - Net cash increase is projected to rise from 159 million yuan in 2024E to 1.213 billion yuan in 2026E [4] - Total assets are forecasted to increase from 5.469 billion yuan in 2024E to 7.694 billion yuan in 2026E [5] - Equity attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 4.466 billion yuan in 2024E to 6.338 billion yuan in 2026E [5] Industry and Competitive Position - The company is steadily progressing along the growth path of analog companies, with accelerated new product launches enhancing its market position [2] - Industrial downstream demand is stabilizing, with inventory digestion nearing completion [2]