YTCO(600066) Huaan Securities·2024-11-07 06:14Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yutong Bus is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The performance in Q3 met expectations, with a focus on policy implementation in Q4 [1] - Despite being a seasonal sales downturn, Q3 performance remained robust [1] - The company reported a total revenue of 24.08 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 131.5% [1] - The gross profit margin in Q3 improved year-on-year, benefiting from effective cost control [1] - The sales structure continues to optimize, with an increasing proportion of new energy buses in exports [1] - The domestic vehicle replacement policy is expected to boost bus sales in Q4 [1] - The company is positioned to benefit from the growth in the bus export market, projecting net profits of 3.4 billion, 3.92 billion, and 4.57 billion yuan for 2024-2026, representing year-on-year growth of 87.0%, 15.5%, and 16.5% respectively [1] Financial Summary - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 27.04 billion yuan, with a projected revenue of 34.13 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.1% and 26.2% respectively [2][3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 1.817 billion yuan, with projections of 3.398 billion yuan for 2024, indicating a year-on-year increase of 139.4% and 87.0% respectively [2][3] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 25.6% in 2023 to 26.6% in 2024 [2][3] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from 13.1% in 2023 to 23.7% in 2024 [2][3] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.82 yuan in 2023 to 1.53 yuan in 2024 [2][3] Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - Operating cash flow for 2023 was 4.717 billion yuan, with a projected decrease to 4.619 billion yuan in 2024 [4] - Total assets are projected to grow from 30.857 billion yuan in 2023 to 35.461 billion yuan in 2024 [5] - Total liabilities are expected to increase from 16.800 billion yuan in 2023 to 20.966 billion yuan in 2024 [5] - The company maintains a strong liquidity position with a current ratio projected to remain stable [6]