Keqian Biology(688526) 华安证券·2024-11-07 07:14Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for Keqian Biotech (688526) [1] Core Views - Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 265 million, down 10.35% YoY [1] - Q3 2024 net profit attributable to parent company was RMB 108 million, down 8.68% YoY [1] - Gross margin improved significantly in Q3 2024 to 65.17%, down 8.97pct YoY [1] - R&D expenses in first three quarters of 2024 were RMB 61.15 million, accounting for 9.19% of revenue [1] - Multiple new vaccine products approved, including PRRS live vaccine and swine fever live vaccine [1] Financial Performance - 2024 Q1-Q3 revenue was RMB 666 million, down 19.57% YoY [1] - 2024 Q1-Q3 net profit attributable to parent company was RMB 261 million, down 27.09% YoY [1] - 2024 Q1-Q3 gross margin was 64.01%, down 9.77pct YoY [1] - 2024 Q1-Q3 net profit margin was 39.07%, down 4.1pct YoY [1] Industry Outlook - Pig prices expected to remain high in Q4 2024 [1] - Downstream breeding industry profitability may drive demand for veterinary drugs [1] - 7-month sow inventory down 7.2% YoY, newborn piglets down 6.8% YoY [1] Future Projections - 2024-2026 revenue forecast: RMB 956 million, RMB 1.15 billion, RMB 1.34 billion [1] - 2024-2026 net profit forecast: RMB 360 million, RMB 458 million, RMB 546 million [1] - 2024-2026 EPS forecast: RMB 0.77, RMB 0.98, RMB 1.17 [1] Financial Ratios - 2024E P/E: 23.98x [3] - 2024E P/B: 2.48x [3] - 2024E EV/EBITDA: 18.50x [3] - 2024E ROE: 8.6% [6]