YTO(600233) 兴业证券·2024-11-07 08:37Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Add" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to see stable improvements in express delivery profits and market share, bolstered by its competitive advantages and digital transformation efforts [3][5]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on the intrinsic value of the express delivery sector rather than the industry's evolution path, emphasizing the strong externalities associated with express delivery services [5]. - The company has shown significant improvements in volume and profitability over the past three years due to its digitalization efforts, which have helped strengthen its competitive position in the industry [5]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 16.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.13%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 940 million yuan, up 18.06% year-on-year [6][12]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 4.32 billion yuan, 5.24 billion yuan, and 6.09 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 13.1, 10.8, and 9.3 [6][11]. - The company's market share in the express delivery sector is projected to be 15.3% in 2024, with a slight decrease from previous years due to industry adjustments [11][12]. Quarterly Performance Analysis - The company's net profit for Q3 2023 was 798 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 20.0%, while Q3 2024 saw a recovery with a net profit of 940 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 18.1% [12][13]. - The average net profit per express delivery ticket for Q3 2024 was 0.153 yuan, showing a slight decrease from the previous quarter [4][12]. - The report indicates that the company's operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 was 4.08 billion yuan, with capital expenditures of approximately 4.72 billion yuan [6][12]. Market Data - As of November 1, 2024, the closing price of the company's stock was 16.49 yuan, with a total share capital of 3,445.39 million shares and net assets of 30,583.4 million yuan [1][6].