赣锋锂业：Q3业绩超预期，一体化布局持续推进

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, and its integrated layout continues to advance [1] - The company reported a revenue of 13.925 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 45.78%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -640 million yuan, down 110.66% year-on-year [2][3] - The company is focusing on overseas project layouts and capacity construction, with significant progress in its Mali Lithium and Argentina projects [3] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.336 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.46% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.29%, with a net profit of 120 million yuan, down 24.85% year-on-year but up 137.32% quarter-on-quarter [2][3] - The overall gross margin for the first three quarters was 10.34%, a decrease of 7.08 percentage points year-on-year, with Q3 gross margin at 9.33%, down 6.61 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2][3] - The company has made significant investments in capacity expansion, with plans to produce 20,000 to 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate from its Argentina project in 2024 [3] Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to have a net profit of -320 million yuan in 2024, with corresponding P/E ratios of -208, 259, and 62 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3][4] - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 21.198 billion yuan, 25.350 billion yuan, and 30.323 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -35.7%, 19.6%, and 19.6% [4][7] - The gross margin is projected to be 11.0% in 2024, 13.4% in 2025, and 15.1% in 2026 [4][7]