YTCO(600066) Soochow Securities·2024-11-07 10:20Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yutong Bus [1] Core Views - In October 2024, Yutong Bus sold 3,221 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 43% and a month-on-month decrease of 15%. The production was 3,558 units, with a year-on-year increase of 38% and a month-on-month decrease of 8% [2] - The sales recovery in October indicates that the company is entering a peak season for production and sales, driven by the demand from the bus replacement policy and the peak delivery season for export orders. The outlook for November and December remains positive as bus demand is expected to increase further [2][3] - The proportion of medium and large buses remains high, with sales of 1,321 medium buses, 1,461 large buses, and 439 light buses in October 2024, reflecting year-on-year increases of 11%, 85%, and 64% respectively [2] - The company continues to build inventory, with a total of 337 units added in October 2024, indicating a strong order backlog and preparation for year-end sales [3] - The new energy city bus and battery replacement subsidy policies are expected to boost demand in Q4, with average subsidies of 60,000 yuan per vehicle, and 80,000 yuan for new energy buses [3] Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts Yutong Bus's total revenue for 2024 to be 34.733 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 28%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 3.314 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 82% [4] - The projected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 16, 13, and 11 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [4]