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特朗普2.0对中国医药行业的影响:整体影响有限,CXO市场情绪或走低
浦银国际证券·2024-11-07 11:21

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pharmaceutical industry, particularly on innovative drugs, high-value consumables, and medical devices [7]. Core Insights - The impact of Trump's election on the Chinese pharmaceutical industry is expected to be limited, with short-term effects on market sentiment for the CXO sector and innovative drug companies [3][4]. - The potential for the "Inflation Reduction Act" (IRA) pressure to ease may boost market sentiment for Chinese innovative drug sales overseas [4]. - The likelihood of comprehensive tariffs on Chinese products is considered limited, as the current export of Chinese pharmaceuticals to the U.S. is minimal, primarily consisting of raw materials [5][7]. Summary by Sections Impact of U.S. Election - Trump's election may lead to a higher probability of the standalone legislation of the "Biological Security Act," which could negatively affect market sentiment for CXO stocks in the short term [3]. - Concerns about the slowdown in overseas financing for biopharmaceuticals may arise due to a potential delay in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [3]. Market Sentiment and Policy Changes - The easing of IRA pressures could positively influence the sentiment for Chinese pharmaceutical companies' overseas sales, as Trump's administration may favor market competition over price negotiations [4]. - If the pricing pressure on overseas pharmaceutical companies is alleviated, it may lead to increased cross-border business development transactions, benefiting Chinese innovative drug companies [4]. Tariff Implications - The report suggests that the impact of potential tariffs on Chinese pharmaceutical companies would be limited, as the majority of exports are raw materials, and many innovative companies are opting for licensing agreements to mitigate risks [5]. - For medical devices, the report indicates that the impact of tariffs would also be minimal, as companies have already begun to adapt to geopolitical risks [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on innovative drugs, high-value consumables, and medical devices, highlighting specific companies such as HCM, 康方生物, 归创通桥, 春立医疗, and 迈瑞医疗 as potential investment opportunities [7].