亚辉龙点评报告：Q3业绩阶段性承压，发光收入仍保持高增长

Investment Rating - Buy / Maintain [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance is under temporary pressure, but its chemiluminescence revenue continues to grow at a high rate [1] - The company's non-COVID self-produced business achieved revenue of 1,142 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.40%, with chemiluminescence business revenue reaching 1,037 million yuan, up 29.15% year-on-year [1] - Overseas chemiluminescence business revenue grew by 45.71% year-on-year, reaching 134 million yuan [1] - The company's gross profit margin increased significantly due to changes in product structure, with the comprehensive gross profit margin rising by 10.32 percentage points to 63.69% [1] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 1,394 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.78%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 219 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.29% [1] - In Q3 2024, the company's operating revenue was 434 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.69%, and net profit attributable to the parent company was 46 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 68.21% [1] - The company's operating cash flow increased by 164.90% year-on-year to 318 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024 [1] Instrument Installation and Market Performance - The company installed 1,727 new self-produced chemiluminescence instruments in the first nine months of 2024, with 995 installed domestically and 732 overseas [1] - The company installed 61 new production lines, a year-on-year increase of 74.29% [1] - As of September 30, 2024, the cumulative installation of self-produced chemiluminescence instruments exceeded 9,980 units, with over 150 production lines installed [1] Revenue Breakdown - The company's self-produced chemiluminescence business revenue reached 1,037 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.15% [1] - Revenue from autoimmune diagnostic reagents increased by 31.41% year-on-year, and myocardial marker diagnostic reagents increased by 49.84% year-on-year [1] - Biochemical diagnostic business revenue grew by 37.11% year-on-year [1] Expense Analysis - Sales expenses increased by 6.47% year-on-year to 300 million yuan, with a sales expense ratio of 21.50% [1] - Management expenses increased by 0.37% year-on-year to 126 million yuan, with a management expense ratio of 9.03% [1] - R&D expenses increased by 7.13% year-on-year to 229 million yuan, with an R&D expense ratio of 16.46% [1] - Financial expenses increased to 6 million yuan, with a financial expense ratio of 0.45% [1] Profitability Forecast - The company's revenue is expected to be 2,117 million yuan in 2024, 2,602 million yuan in 2025, and 3,124 million yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 3%, 23%, and 20% respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 376 million yuan in 2024, 509 million yuan in 2025, and 650 million yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 6%, 35%, and 28% respectively [2] - The company's PE ratio is 27.24x for 2024, 20.11x for 2025, and 15.76x for 2026 [3] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - The company's total assets are expected to be 3,929 million yuan in 2024, 4,327 million yuan in 2025, and 4,868 million yuan in 2026 [4] - Operating cash flow is expected to be 729 million yuan in 2024, 680 million yuan in 2025, and 800 million yuan in 2026 [4] - The company's ROE is expected to be 13.40% in 2024, 16.14% in 2025, and 17.83% in 2026 [4]