Economic Policies - Trump's economic policies include significant tax cuts, increased tariffs, and reduced regulations, which are expected to face less resistance due to Republican control of both houses of Congress[2][4] - Proposed tax cuts aim to permanently reduce personal and estate taxes, benefiting the top 95%-99% income households and low-income earners, potentially increasing disposable income and stimulating consumption[2][4] - Corporate tax rates may be lowered from 21% to 20% or 15%, alongside accelerated capital expenditure depreciation, which could enhance cash flow for domestic companies and encourage investment[2][4] Inflation and Interest Rates - Trump's policies may elevate inflation risks, leading to prolonged high interest rates, which could increase downward pressure on the U.S. economy[4][6] - The combination of tax cuts and tariffs is projected to push inflation up, with estimates suggesting a 0.35 percentage point increase in CPI inflation from deporting 1.3 million immigrants[6][8] - The U.S. government debt is expected to rise significantly, with projections indicating an increase of 524 billion in annual revenue but may reduce long-term GDP growth by 0.8% and eliminate approximately 684,000 jobs[5][6] - The trade policies may negatively impact employment growth and industrial competitiveness, as previous tariffs have shown detrimental effects[5][6] Currency and Global Impact - Trump's victory is expected to strengthen the U.S. dollar in the short term due to fiscal expansion and higher bond yields, but long-term prospects for the dollar may weaken due to rising debt levels and global de-dollarization trends[10][12] - The potential for increased tariffs on Chinese goods could lead to depreciation pressures on the Chinese yuan, impacting China's exports and economic growth, with estimates suggesting a 0.85% reduction in China's GDP by 2025 if tariffs are implemented[13][14]
2024年美国大选点评
东方金诚·2024-11-08 06:03