2024年美国大选点评：特朗普归来：政策及影响

Group 1: Election Outcome and Policy Direction - The Republican Party won the presidency and the Senate in the 2024 U.S. elections, with a high probability of winning the House of Representatives as well[5] - Trump's domestic policy emphasizes a return to conservative principles, focusing on economic liberalism, reduced government intervention, and tax cuts[1] - Proposed tax cuts include lowering the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% and making certain provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent[30] Group 2: Economic Impact - Trump's policies are expected to increase U.S. economic growth, but higher tariffs and tightened immigration policies may offset some of these gains and lead to increased inflation[29] - If implemented, Trump's tax cuts could raise U.S. GDP growth by 2.5 percentage points, while inflation could rise by 1.6% to 2.8% to over 4%[34] - The proposed universal 10% tariff on imports and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods could increase inflation by 1% to 2%[32] Group 3: Trade and Immigration Policies - Trump's trade policies include a universal 10% tariff on nearly all imports and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods, which may lead to trade tensions and retaliatory measures[22] - Tightened immigration policies could lead to labor shortages, particularly in low-skilled sectors, further exacerbating inflation pressures[34] - The estimated number of illegal immigrants in the U.S. is around 9 million, primarily in labor-intensive industries[33]