LEAD INTELLIGENT(300450) 海通国际·2024-11-08 06:10Investment Rating - The report assigns an "OUTPERFORM" rating to the company with a target price of RMB 23.69 per share [2][6]. Core Insights - The company's performance in Q3 2024 was impacted by delayed revenue recognition and significant credit loss provisions, leading to a 30.90% year-over-year decline in revenue for the first three quarters and a 73.81% drop in net profit attributable to shareholders [3][19]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its overseas business, which saw a 159.56% increase in revenue in H1 2024, now accounting for 19.03% of total revenue, indicating a strong push in its globalization strategy [5][22]. - The company is also innovating in various fields, particularly in solid-state batteries, where it has achieved significant breakthroughs and established partnerships with major global players [5][23]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 9.11 billion, down 30.90% year-over-year, and a net profit of RMB 608 million, down 73.81% year-over-year [3][18]. - The Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 3.36 billion, a decrease of 44.93% year-over-year but an increase of 37.61% quarter-over-quarter [3][18]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) and net profit margin (NPM) for the first three quarters were 36.42% and 6.44%, respectively, reflecting a decline compared to the previous year [4][20]. Business Segments - The lithium battery equipment segment is expected to face a revenue decline of 30.00% in 2024, with a gradual recovery projected in subsequent years [12]. - The photovoltaic equipment segment is anticipated to grow by 10.00% annually from 2024 to 2026, supported by favorable government policies [10]. - The 3C smart devices segment is projected to grow by 10.00% in 2024 and 30.00% in the following years, driven by advancements in AI and consumer electronics [11]. Valuation and Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of RMB 1.37 billion, RMB 1.83 billion, and RMB 2.18 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.88, RMB 1.17, and RMB 1.39 [6][24]. - A PE valuation of 27x for 2024 has been assigned, leading to a target price of RMB 23.69 per share, indicating a reasonable market capitalization of RMB 37.10 billion [6][24].