特朗普2.0：宏观与策略推演

Economic Impact - Trump 2.0 policies, including tax cuts and deregulation, may initially boost US economic growth, with private investment contributing 1.6 percentage points to GDP growth in 2017Q4[32] - Long-term economic growth is uncertain due to trade protectionism, restrictive immigration policies, and rising debt, potentially leading to a "high start, low finish" scenario[35] - Inflation is expected to rise due to tariffs and restrictive immigration policies, with import prices increasing from 1.2% to 4.8% between July 2017 and July 2018[36] Macro Policy - The Federal Reserve may face the risk of a second round of interest rate hikes if Trump's policies lead to re-inflation, with only about 1% of rate cut space remaining[41] - US fiscal sustainability is under pressure, with public debt leverage expected to rise by 17 percentage points by 2035, reaching 142%[44] Impact on China - Short-term pressure on China's current and capital accounts due to high US inflation, interest rates, growth, and tariffs[47] - Long-term relief may come if the US adjusts its policies, such as lowering tariffs or interest rates, as economic pressures increase[47] Capital Markets - Trump 2.0 policies are expected to negatively impact US Treasuries, non-US currencies, gold, crude oil, small-cap US stocks, and the new energy sector, while benefiting the US dollar, traditional energy, financial, and tech sectors[50] - The US dollar is expected to remain strong due to high tariffs, tax cuts, and restrictive immigration policies, which are inflationary and limit the Fed's ability to cut rates[58] Asset Strategy - US Treasuries are recommended with a focus on short to medium durations, as they offer higher yields and are less sensitive to interest rate changes[55] - Gold is expected to remain volatile, with potential to reach $3,000 per ounce, but may face headwinds from reduced central bank buying and lower geopolitical risks[63]