TFC(300394) 海通证券·2024-11-08 12:49Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Tianfu Communication (300394) [2] Core Views - Tianfu Communication's performance shows steady growth with successful new product development [3] - The company's 24Q3 revenue reached 839 million yuan, up 54 77% YoY and 1 76% QoQ [7] - Net profit for 24Q3 was 322 million yuan, up 58 69% YoY but down 14 14% QoQ [7] - Gross margin for 24Q3 was 59 04%, up 3 68 percentage points YoY but down 0 74 percentage points QoQ [7] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 2 395 billion yuan, up 98 55% YoY [7] - Net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 was 976 million yuan, up 122 39% YoY [7] - Gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 58 21%, up 5 28 percentage points YoY [7] - R&D expenses for the first three quarters of 2024 were 173 million yuan, up 65 07% YoY [8] Industry and Market Position - The AI computing power demand is expected to boost high-speed optical module demand, benefiting the optical communication industry [9] - Tianfu Communication holds a leading position in the industry, with stable growth potential in business revenue [9] - The company is advancing multiple R&D projects related to silicon photonics technology platforms and CPO-related products [8] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from 3 667 billion yuan in 2024E to 7 693 billion yuan in 2026E [6] - Net profit is expected to increase from 1 415 billion yuan in 2024E to 3 046 billion yuan in 2026E [6] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 2 55 yuan in 2024E to 5 50 yuan in 2026E [6] - The company's 2025E PE ratio is estimated to be in the range of 35-40X, with a fair value range of 140 70-160 80 yuan [9] Operational Efficiency - The company's inventory turnover days increased from 105 33 in 2023 to 115 05 in 2024E [12] - Total asset turnover improved from 0 50 in 2023 to 0 64 in 2024E [12] - Fixed asset turnover is expected to rise from 3 14 in 2023 to 5 20 in 2024E [12]