ZHENGBANG TECHNOLOGY(002157) 华鑫证券·2024-11-10 00:10Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Zhengbang Technology (002157.SZ) [1] Core Views - Zhengbang Technology has shown a significant recovery in its operations, with a focus on adopting the successful breeding management systems and corporate culture of the Twin Group, which is expected to help the company regain its leading position in the industry [1][4] - The company reported a revenue of 5.837 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 301 million yuan, marking a significant turnaround from losses [1] - The report highlights the ongoing optimization of breeding costs, with operational costs for weaned piglets decreasing from 600 yuan per head at the end of 2023 to below 400 yuan per head [1][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, Zhengbang Technology achieved a revenue of 2.615 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60.1%, and a net profit of 428 million yuan [1] - The company’s overall production capacity utilization is currently below 50%, but there is confidence that this will improve as the recovery plan accelerates [1][3] Production and Sales - The sales volume of pigs has been increasing month by month, with Q3 2024 sales reaching 887,700 heads, showing a month-on-month growth of 20.5% and 37.5% in August and September, respectively [1][2] - The company is expected to maintain a light asset model for its fattening operations, with over 80% of sales coming from this model [2] Debt and Equity - As of Q3 2024, the asset-liability ratio of Zhengbang Technology was 47.05%, a decrease of 6.92 percentage points since the beginning of the year, indicating a significant reduction in debt levels [3] - The equity attributable to shareholders increased by 16.4% to 11.633 billion yuan, primarily due to an investment of 1.11 billion yuan from the restructuring investor [3] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for revenue from 2024 to 2026 is 8.755 billion, 13.308 billion, and 17.401 billion yuan, respectively, with expected EPS of 0.06, 0.08, and -0.05 yuan [4][6] - The report anticipates a longer duration of profitability in the current pig cycle compared to 2022, driven by slower recovery rates among small and medium-sized producers [4]