TONGWEI CO.,LTD(600438) 海通证券·2024-11-10 10:19Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tongwei Co., Ltd. is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 showed significant improvement, with total revenue reaching 68.272 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -3.973 billion yuan. In Q3 2024, revenue was 24.475 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.03%, and a substantial reduction in losses with a gross margin of 8.90%, up by 3.47 percentage points [5] - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement in its silicon material production, with the production cost significantly lowered in Q3 2024. The new capacity from the Inner Mongolia project is ramping up, which is expected to strengthen the company's cost advantage in silicon materials [5] - In the battery segment, the company is rapidly increasing its N-type battery capacity, with expectations to exceed 100GW by the end of the year. The company has achieved record-breaking efficiency in its heterojunction components [6] - The company's module business is expanding internationally, with new contracts signed in markets such as South Africa and the UAE, and an increasing share of overseas sales [6] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 68.272 billion yuan, with a net profit of -3.973 billion yuan. The Q3 revenue was 24.475 billion yuan, with a significant reduction in losses to -844 million yuan [5] - The projected financials for 2024-2026 indicate a recovery, with expected net profits of -4.570 billion yuan in 2024, followed by 4.354 billion yuan in 2025 and 8.108 billion yuan in 2026. The gross margin is expected to improve from 7.1% in 2024 to 16.0% in 2026 [8][10] - The estimated price-to-book (PB) ratio for 2025 is projected to be between 3.0 and 3.2, with a corresponding reasonable value range of 36.82 to 39.28 yuan per share [7]