YTO(600233) 长江证券·2024-11-11 08:05Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 49.37 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.93 billion yuan, up 10.2% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 16.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.1%, with a net profit of 940 million yuan, reflecting an 18.1% growth year-on-year [2]. - The company continues to gain market share, with a volume increase of 28.1% year-on-year to 6.71 billion pieces, resulting in a market share increase of 0.2 percentage points to 15.4% [3]. - The average price per shipment decreased by 0.13 yuan (5.4%) to 2.21 yuan due to intensified price competition, although there was a slight price increase in September [2][3]. - The company has seen a continuous improvement in costs, with a decrease in the average cost per shipment by 0.10 yuan year-on-year and 0.01 yuan quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The international business has been a drag on performance, with a slight decline in gross profit per shipment, but the net profit per shipment remained stable [3]. - Capital expenditures increased significantly to approximately 2.02 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a 46.5% year-on-year increase, indicating a more aggressive expansion strategy [3]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 4.18 billion yuan, 4.97 billion yuan, and 5.72 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 14.3, 12.0, and 10.4 [4]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the projected total revenue is 67.97 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.18 billion yuan and earnings per share of 1.21 yuan [8]. - The company’s operating cash flow for Q3 2024 was 1.77 billion yuan, a 36.0% increase year-on-year, reflecting improved cash flow performance [3][8]. - The current stock price is 17.33 yuan, with a total share capital of 344.54 million shares [5].