PDH(600048) 东兴证券·2024-11-11 09:26Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Poly Developments [1]. Core Views - Poly Developments maintains a strong position as an industry leader, focusing on a "central city + urban cluster" strategy to deepen its market presence [2][6]. - The company achieved a revenue of 346.83 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 23.4%, and its real estate business generated 322.5 billion yuan, growing by 25.7% [1][16]. - In the first half of 2024, the company reported a signed sales amount of 173.34 billion yuan, although this represented a year-on-year decline of 26.8% [2][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Poly Developments primarily engages in real estate investment and development, with a business model that includes property services and financial services [4][11]. - The company has maintained its status as the leading central enterprise in the real estate sector for 15 consecutive years [4]. Strategy and Management - The company adheres to a forward-looking strategic planning approach, which has guided its operations through various economic cycles [16][22]. - The strategic focus has evolved through three major phases since 2002, adapting to market conditions and opportunities [20][21]. Main Business Operations - The "central city + urban cluster" strategy has led to a significant increase in market share, with the sales market share rising from 2.94% in 2021 to 3.68% in the first half of 2024 [2][6]. - The company has effectively controlled its investment pace, with land acquisition intensity dropping to 7.3% in the first half of 2024, while focusing on high-energy cities [2][8]. Financial Overview - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 11.04 billion, 11.55 billion, and 13.17 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.92, 0.97, and 1.10 yuan [3][6]. - The company’s financial structure remains robust, with a net debt ratio of 66.0% as of the third quarter of 2024, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year [22].