CATEC(600879) 申万宏源·2024-11-11 10:14Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a Buy rating for the company, citing its strong position in the aerospace electronics sector and the potential for rapid growth driven by both aerospace and unmanned systems businesses [3][6] Core Views - The company is a leading platform in the aerospace electronics industry, with a dominant position in aerospace electronic information and unmanned systems equipment [3][6] - The aerospace products segment, particularly inertial navigation, laser communication terminals, and measurement & control communication, is expected to be a key driver of future performance [3][7] - The unmanned systems business is poised for high growth, benefiting from the increasing demand for informatization and intelligentization in both military and civilian applications [3][8] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 15.71 billion yuan in 2024E to 19.61 billion yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 11.7% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 615 million yuan in 2024E to 930 million yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 22.9% [4] - The company's PE ratio for 2024E is 56x, which is lower than the industry average of 70x, indicating potential undervaluation [6] Aerospace Products - The inertial navigation business is deeply integrated into major national aerospace projects, with applications in low-orbit satellite constellations and deep-space exploration [3][7] - The laser communication terminal business is a core component of inter-satellite communication, with an estimated market potential of 152.8 billion yuan [3][7] - The measurement & control communication business is critical for aerospace engineering, with stable revenue expected from its high market share in related projects [3][7] Unmanned Systems - The company has a strong foothold in the unmanned systems market, with its "Feihong" series of drones and "Feiteng" series of loitering munitions gaining traction both domestically and internationally [3][8] - The unmanned systems business is expected to benefit from the rapid growth in demand for military drones and the expansion into civilian applications, such as low-altitude logistics [3][8] Key Assumptions - The aerospace military products segment is expected to generate revenues of 13.42 billion yuan, 15.86 billion yuan, and 19.26 billion yuan in 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively, with a CAGR of 19.8% [7] - The civilian products segment, primarily consisting of integrated circuits, is expected to see a significant decline in revenue due to the divestiture of the loss-making wire and cable business, with revenues projected at 212 million yuan, 6 million yuan, and 7 million yuan in 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively [7] Industry Context - The aerospace electronics industry is entering a period of significant opportunity, driven by increased national investment in aerospace and the rapid development of commercial aerospace [8] - The unmanned systems market is expected to grow rapidly, supported by the increasing demand for intelligent and information-based military equipment, as well as the potential of low-altitude economy in civilian applications [8]