Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Water Affairs (855 HK) with a target price of HKD 6.10, reflecting a potential upside of 29.1% from the current price of HKD 4.73 [3][11]. Core Insights - The company has adjusted its development strategy following the suspension of its plan to spin off its water supply and pipeline drinking water businesses, focusing on strengthening operational management to reduce capital expenditures. This shift is expected to lead to a decline in non-cash construction revenue contributions from the water supply and pipeline drinking water segments [1]. - The company has initiated price adjustment applications for over 20 water supply projects, which represent about one-third of its total water supply capacity. The price adjustments are anticipated to start reflecting in FY26 [2]. - The reduction in cash outflows for investment activities during FY25-27, along with favorable financing conditions due to declining domestic and international interest rates, is expected to provide the company with more room to increase its dividend payout ratio [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to decline from HKD 12,859 million in FY24 to HKD 11,044 million in FY25, with a further decrease to HKD 10,991 million in FY26 and HKD 10,642 million in FY27, reflecting growth rates of 9.6%, -14.1%, -0.5%, and -3.2% respectively [5]. - Shareholder net profit is expected to decrease from HKD 1,534 million in FY24 to HKD 1,319 million in FY25, with slight recoveries to HKD 1,328 million in FY26 and HKD 1,307 million in FY27, showing growth rates of -17.4%, -14.0%, and 0.7% respectively [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be HKD 0.94 in FY25, HKD 0.81 in FY26, and HKD 0.80 in FY27 [5][6]. Adjustments to Forecasts - The report has revised down the forecasts for shareholder net profit by 16.6% for FY25 and 23.3% for FY26, while introducing a new forecast for FY27 [2][6]. - The target price has been adjusted from HKD 6.30 to HKD 6.10, reflecting the updated market conditions and risk assessments [2].
中国水务：优化发展策略，降低资本开支