TINCI(002709) Haitong Securities·2024-11-13 03:18Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the company's revenue in Q3 2024 was 3.413 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.52% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.26%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 101 million yuan, down 78.25% year-on-year and 18.15% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 17.90%, down 6.42 percentage points year-on-year and 0.38 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The profitability is under pressure due to fluctuations in upstream raw material prices and electrolyte prices [4] - The company is advancing its integration strategy, achieving significant cost advantages. It has leading technology in liquid lithium hexafluorophosphate production, with both unit capacity investment costs and production costs significantly lower than the industry average. As of H1 2024, the self-supply ratio of key raw materials, lithium hexafluorophosphate and LiFSI, exceeded 97%, further reducing costs [4] - The company is actively expanding its overseas market and accelerating global capacity layout. Several designated projects are in the pilot testing stage, with orderly progress in factory construction. The North America and Morocco projects are on schedule, with the U.S. project of 200,000 tons in the design and environmental assessment stages, and the Morocco project in the design phase, expected to be completed by the end of 2026 [5] - The company is focusing on research and development innovation, particularly in the electrolyte and cathode material sectors, with plans to develop high-energy density systems and new materials to meet market demands [5] Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 12.702 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.5%, with a net profit of 488 million yuan, down 74.2% year-on-year. The revenue is expected to recover in 2025 and 2026, with projections of 16.199 billion yuan and 20.722 billion yuan respectively [7][9] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 15.7% in 2024 to 20.7% in 2026, while the net profit margin is projected to increase from 3.8% in 2024 to 9.6% in 2026 [11] - The report estimates that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company will be 4.88 billion yuan in 2024, 12.88 billion yuan in 2025, and 19.85 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a significant recovery in profitability [6][9]