JIANGXI GUOKE DEFENCE GROUP CO.(SH:688543) Haitong Securities·2024-11-13 08:53Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The company focuses on missile (rocket) solid engine power and control products, as well as ammunition equipment, with a strong emphasis on R&D and core technology advantages. Revenue for 2022, 2023, and Q1-3 of 2024 was 837 million, 1,040 million, and 764 million yuan respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 24.50%, 24.25%, and 12.70% [4][6] - The company has announced significant investments to expand solid engine production capacity and develop a research center for aerospace power, which is expected to alleviate capacity bottlenecks and drive rapid growth in the solid engine business [4] - The company has a strong position in the ammunition sector, being the only enterprise outside of state-owned military groups capable of producing various types of small and medium caliber ammunition. Recent successful bids for new models indicate ongoing expansion in this area [4] - A stock incentive plan has been introduced to motivate employees, covering 200 individuals and representing 2.05% of total shares, which is expected to enhance management's commitment to future growth [4] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 1,307 million, 1,536 million, and 1,984 million yuan, with expected growth rates of 25.6%, 17.6%, and 29.2% respectively. Net profit is projected to be 185 million, 214 million, and 291 million yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 31.8%, 15.2%, and 36.0% [6][10] - The company’s EPS is forecasted to be 1.05, 1.22, and 1.65 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a corresponding PE valuation range of 60-65 times for 2024, indicating a fair value range of 63.30 to 68.57 yuan [4][10] Market Performance - The company has shown a strong market performance with a 41.83% increase compared to the Haidong Composite Index, outperforming the market significantly [2]