恒拓开源：三季报点评：行业前景向好，短期业绩承压

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, Hengtuo Kaiyuan (834415.BJ) [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 117 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decline of 4.48%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.17 million yuan, down 8.43% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, revenue was 35.69 million yuan, a decrease of 15.94%, with a net profit of 1.91 million yuan, down 45.09% year-on-year [1] - Despite short-term performance pressure, the long-term outlook for the industry remains positive. The company is a key software supplier ensuring the safe operation of China's civil aviation industry, providing comprehensive industry solutions for airlines, airports, and other support units. The business covers smart civil aviation, low-altitude economy, and digital economy sectors, indicating significant future growth potential [1] - The company has strengthened its leading position in aviation IT and has expanded its business dimensions to include air traffic control and logistics materials. It has also established a low-altitude division to explore related product lines and business opportunities [1][2] - Following a change in actual control to China Intelligent Transportation, the company aims to deepen its involvement in the smart transportation industry and leverage resources to enhance its operations in smart civil aviation and low-altitude economy [2] Financial Projections - The company plans to increase R&D investment and explore the development of the low-altitude economy starting in the second half of 2023. The strategic plan for 2024 includes focusing on civil aviation, multi-pillar development, embracing artificial intelligence, and significantly investing in the low-altitude economy [2] - Projected net profits for 2024-2026 are expected to be 21.09 million yuan, 24.98 million yuan, and 31.68 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 5.02%, 18.46%, and 26.79%, respectively. The corresponding EPS for these years is projected to be 0.15 yuan, 0.18 yuan, and 0.23 yuan per share, with PE ratios of 150, 127, and 100 times, respectively [2][3]