CM BANK(600036) 海通证券·2024-11-14 09:08Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for China Merchants Bank (CMB) [1][3] Core Views - CMB's Q3 2024 net profit attributable to parent company turned positive, with a year-on-year growth of 0.8% [4] - Asset quality remained stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.94%, unchanged from the previous quarter [4] - Net interest margin (NIM) narrowed, with Q3 2024 NIM at 1.92%, up 1bp from the previous quarter [4] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 0.6% [4] - Core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio increased by 1.36 percentage points year-on-year to 14.73% [4] - Provision coverage ratio was 432.15%, down 2.27 percentage points from the previous quarter [4] Valuation and Forecast - The report forecasts EPS for 2024-2026 to be 5.74, 5.92, and 6.16 yuan, respectively [5] - The reasonable value range for CMB is estimated to be 40.48-46.88 yuan, based on DDM and PB-ROE models [5] Industry Comparison - CMB's 2024E PB ratio is 1.00x, higher than the industry average of 0.48x [7] - The average ROE for comparable companies in 2023 was 9.92%, while CMB's ROE was 16.55% [7] Key Financial Metrics - Net interest income for 2024E is projected to be 210.521 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.93% [16] - Loan growth for 2024E is expected to be 3.85%, while deposit growth is projected at 7.00% [16] - The cost-to-income ratio for 2024E is forecasted to be 29.50%, down from 32.96% in 2023 [16]