Wangfujing(600859) 海通证券·2024-11-15 01:07Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company is facing short-term operational pressure, but the duty-free business continues to expand [1][10]. - The company operates 79 large retail stores across seven major economic regions in China, actively expanding its footprint in shopping centers and outlets [10]. - The report projects revenue for 2024-2026 to be 111 billion, 122 billion, and 131 billion respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of -9.3%, 9.8%, and 7.6% [10]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.464 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.61%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 134 million yuan, an increase of 2.53% [5][6]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 38.29%, down 1.09 percentage points from the previous year [6][8]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue was 8.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.27% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 40.17% [6][10]. Business Segment Analysis - By business segment in the first three quarters of 2024, department store revenue was 3.242 billion yuan (down 15.45%), shopping center revenue was 2.254 billion yuan (down 1.58%), outlet revenue was 1.650 billion yuan (up 4.37%), specialty store revenue was 1.078 billion yuan (down 4.97%), and duty-free revenue was 204 million yuan (up 68.62%) [7][11]. - Regionally, South China saw revenue of 312 million yuan (up 13.64%), Northeast China 365 million yuan (up 7.91%), East China 455 million yuan (down 2.93%), and Southwest China 1.753 billion yuan (down 14.75%) [7][12]. Expense and Profitability Analysis - The company's expense ratio increased by 2.63 percentage points in Q3 2024, with a sales expense ratio of 16.35% and a management expense ratio of 13.02% [8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2024 was 134 million yuan, with a significant drop in non-recurring net profit by 70.54% [8][10]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report estimates earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 to be 0.47 yuan, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25-30 times for 2025, leading to a reasonable value range of 15.63 to 18.75 yuan per share [10][15]. - The company is expected to maintain a net profit margin of around 4.9% to 6.4% over the next few years, with a return on equity projected to rise from 2.7% in 2024 to 3.9% in 2026 [15][16].