七一二：行业波动业绩短期承压，专网通信长期景气向好

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 19.67 yuan per share, based on a 37x PE valuation for 2025 [3][11] Core Views - The company faces short-term pressure due to industry cyclical fluctuations, but the long-term outlook for the private network communication sector remains positive [1] - The company is a core supplier in China's military and civilian private network wireless communication field, benefiting from the trend of equipment informatization [6][7] - The company has a first-mover advantage in dedicated wireless communication and is actively expanding into the civilian market [7] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.609 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.97% [1][2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was -27 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 108.85% [1][2] - Gross profit margin in the first three quarters was 33.92%, a decrease of 10.49 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company's inventory was 2.694 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.45% from the beginning of the year, while accounts receivable increased by 7.69% to 4.006 billion yuan [1] Business Segments - The wireless communication terminal business is expected to achieve revenue of 1.549 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 40% [11] - The system product business is expected to achieve revenue of 1.023 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 30% [11] - Other businesses are expected to maintain stable revenue of 128 million yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 45% [11] Future Projections - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 2.7 billion yuan, 3.292 billion yuan, and 3.924 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -17.4%, 21.9%, and 19.2% [10][11] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is projected to be 175 million yuan, 410 million yuan, and 526 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -60.3%, 135.0%, and 28.1% [10][11] - EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 0.23 yuan, 0.53 yuan, and 0.68 yuan per share [10][11]