2024年前三季度全国31省市经济数据点评：18省市跑赢全国，年终冲刺还看大省

Economic Overview - 18 provinces and cities outperformed the national average GDP growth of 4.8% in the first three quarters of 2024[2] - Guangdong's GDP reached 9.99 trillion yuan, accounting for approximately 10.5% of the national total[2] - Jiangsu followed closely with a GDP of 9.77 trillion yuan, while Shandong exceeded 7 trillion yuan, and Zhejiang surpassed 6 trillion yuan for the first time[2] Regional Performance - The top six provinces (Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, Henan, Sichuan) contributed 42.56 trillion yuan, representing about 44.8% of the national GDP, a slight increase from 44.2% at the end of 2023[4] - Jiangsu's GDP growth rate of 5.7% significantly outpaced Guangdong's 3.4%, narrowing the gap from 298.2 billion yuan last year to 219.5 billion yuan[5] - The Yangtze River Delta region's GDP totaled 23.2 trillion yuan, making up 24.4% of the national GDP, with a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous year[6] Industrial and Consumption Trends - Industrial growth was the main driver for the 18 outperforming provinces, with all but one (Liaoning) showing higher industrial value-added growth than the national average[3] - Consumption growth was weaker, with significant declines in social retail sales in major cities like Beijing (-1.6%), Shanghai (-3.4%), and Hainan (-6.2%)[3] Challenges and Future Outlook - Some provinces in the central and northeastern regions, such as Shanxi (1.8%) and Heilongjiang (2.3%), showed weak economic performance, primarily due to reliance on traditional industries[9] - The report anticipates that with supportive policies, economic provinces are expected to further expand their growth potential in the fourth quarter, contributing to the national target of around 5%[11] - Potential trade policy changes from the U.S. under a new administration could introduce uncertainties for provinces heavily reliant on exports to the U.S., such as Guangdong and Jiangsu[13]