24年10月美国宏观数据好坏参半，9月MRO行业由价格推动增长

Economic Overview - In October 2024, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI recorded 46.5, down from 47.2, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment[1] - The US ISM Services PMI increased to 56.0 from 54.9, showing continued strength in the services sector[1] - The probability of an economic recession in the US over the next 12 months decreased to 46.1% from 56.2%, indicating reduced recession fears[1] - ADP reported an increase of 233,000 new jobs in October, up from 143,000 in the previous month, suggesting a positive trend in employment[1] MRO Industry Insights - The MRO industry growth in September was primarily driven by price increases, with the US Private Capital Equipment PPI rising 2.6% year-on-year, compared to 2.5% previously[2] - The industrial production index for manufacturing showed a year-on-year decline of 0.35% in September, down from 0.00%[2] - In Q3 2024, US domestic private investment grew by 5.5% year-on-year, down from 7.8%, while GDP growth was 2.7%, down from 3.0%[2] - US exports increased by 4.5% year-on-year, up from 3.5% previously, indicating a warming in corporate investment and exports[2] Political Impact - The return of Donald Trump to the presidency is expected to benefit the MRO industry, potentially leading to tax cuts and regulatory relaxations[2] - Increased tariffs may raise procurement costs for MRO companies but could also boost demand from returning manufacturing[2] Risks - The report highlights several risks including geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic fluctuations, supply chain disruptions, raw material price volatility, exchange rate risks, and liquidity risks[3]