政策研究：化解风险，激活地方：对化债增量政策的思考

Policy Overview - The National People's Congress approved an increase in local government debt limits by 6 trillion yuan, raising the total limit from 29.52 trillion yuan to 35.52 trillion yuan by the end of 2024[2] - The "6+4+2" debt resolution plan aims to clear local hidden debts by 2028, reducing the current hidden debt balance of 14.3 trillion yuan to 2.3 trillion yuan[3] Debt Resolution Strategy - The plan includes a 10 trillion yuan increase in local debt resources over three years, with 8,000 billion yuan allocated annually from new local government bonds for debt resolution[3] - Local governments are still responsible for resolving 2.3 trillion yuan of hidden debt by the 2028 deadline, indicating a shift in risk management[4] Economic Impact - The debt resolution will increase local governments' actual available financial resources by an average of 2.52 trillion yuan annually, despite a rise in visible debt ratios[8] - The reduction in hidden debt will allow local governments to shift from a contractionary fiscal stance to an expansionary one, stimulating investment and consumption[8] Financial Market Outlook - The A-share market may enter a period of adjustment following the implementation of the debt resolution plan, with potential for new highs as fiscal and monetary policies become more supportive[12] - The bond market is expected to experience a volatile environment, with 10-year government bond yields projected to range between 1.9% and 2.2%[13]