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轻工社零数据月度跟踪：10月家具社零同比+7.4%，换新效果持续释放
财通证券·2024-11-15 12:23

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the light industry manufacturing sector [1] Core Views - In October 2024, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% YoY, with a month-on-month growth of 1.6 percentage points [2] - Furniture retail sales in October 2024 rose by 7.4% YoY, a significant increase from the previous month's growth of 0.4% [3] - The "replace old with new" policy has effectively boosted furniture sales, with 150 billion yuan in special treasury bonds allocated to support this initiative [3] - Residential property sales and completions showed narrowing declines, while new construction starts saw an expanded decline in October 2024 [4] Sector Performance - Furniture retail sales in October 2024 increased by 7.4% YoY, with a month-on-month growth of 7.0 percentage points [3] - Daily necessities retail sales grew by 8.5% YoY, up 5.5 percentage points from the previous month [3] - Apparel, footwear, and textile retail sales turned positive with an 8.0% YoY increase, compared to a -0.4% decline in the previous month [3] - Cultural and office supplies retail sales surged by 18.0% YoY, up 8.0 percentage points from the previous month [3] Real Estate Market - Residential property sales area declined by 0.5% YoY in October 2024, narrowing from an 11.0% decline in the previous month [4] - New residential construction starts fell by 25.7% YoY, with the decline expanding by 8.0 percentage points [4] - Residential completions dropped by 19.5% YoY, but the decline narrowed by 10.6 percentage points [4] - Policy measures, including reduced mortgage rates and unified down payment ratios, are expected to stabilize the real estate market [4] Investment Recommendations - Recommend leading companies such as Kuka Home (603816 SH) and Oppein Home (603833 SH) for their strategic advancements and operational efficiency [5] - Suggest monitoring DeRUCCI (001323 SZ), Easyhome (000785 SZ), and Sleemon (603008 SH) for their strong brand positioning and channel expansion [5]