Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for JD Group [5][12][3] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 260.4 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.1%. Retail revenue was 225 billion yuan, up 6.1% year-on-year, with active user numbers and daily active users (DAU) showing double-digit growth [1][6] - Non-GAAP net profit reached 13.2 billion yuan, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 5.1%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The adjusted EBITDA margin improved from 5.2% to 5.8% [2][7] - The management indicated that the performance during the Double 11 shopping festival exceeded internal expectations, with both user numbers and purchase frequency achieving double-digit growth [1][6] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 1,135.6 billion yuan, 1,202.9 billion yuan, and 1,282.3 billion yuan, with slight adjustments of +0.1% for each year. Adjusted net profits are forecasted at 44.8 billion yuan, 50.1 billion yuan, and 55.4 billion yuan, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% [3][12] - The company is expected to maintain a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 9x for 2024, with a target price range of 162-194 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 20%-44% from the current price [3][12] Shareholder Returns - In Q3 2024, the company repurchased 31 million shares for approximately 390 million USD, representing 1.1% of the shares outstanding as of June 30, 2024. A new buyback plan was approved in August 2024, allowing for the repurchase of up to 5 billion USD worth of shares by August 2027 [2][7]
京东集团-SW：2024Q3点评：利润表现亮眼，零售业务将加大用户投入