Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's cargo volume continues to grow, and profitability maintains rapid growth [1] - The company's strategic transformation has significantly improved profitability, and the scale effect is expected to further enhance unit gross profit [2] - The company's long-term development potential is promising, driven by service price increases and efficiency improvements [2] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved total revenue of RMB 3,044.1 million, a year-on-year increase of 21.2% [1] - Gross profit was RMB 476.3 million, up 66.7% year-on-year [1] - Adjusted pre-tax profit was RMB 284.1 million, a year-on-year increase of 39.2% [1] - Adjusted net profit was RMB 218.4 million, up 28.0% year-on-year [1] - Net profit was RMB 189.6 million, a year-on-year increase of 24.8% [1] Cargo Volume and Market Expansion - In Q3 2024, the company's cargo volume reached 3.73 million tons, up 18.5% year-on-year and 5.3% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The growth in cargo volume is attributed to the company's focus on service quality, network expansion, and enhanced franchise network ecosystem [1] - As of September 2024, the company had approximately 32,000 freight partners and agents, an increase of 4,000 compared to the same period in 2023 [1] - Mini-parcel (70 kg or less) and small-parcel (70-300 kg) cargo volumes grew by 37.3% and 22.6% year-on-year, respectively, driven by the "3300 policy" and e-commerce growth [1] Revenue and Cost Analysis - In Q3 2024, the company's LTL (Less Than Truckload) revenue per ton was RMB 815, up 2.3% year-on-year but down 0.7% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The quarter-on-quarter decline in revenue per ton is due to cost-oriented pricing strategies and the "3300 product policy" [3] - Cost per ton in Q3 2024 was RMB 687, down 2.7% year-on-year but up 0.9% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The company improved efficiency through centralized procurement and route optimization, reducing trunk transportation costs to RMB 297 per ton, down 1.8% quarter-on-quarter [3] - Distribution center costs were RMB 140 per ton, down 17% year-on-year but up 0.9% quarter-on-quarter [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve adjusted net profits of RMB 845 million, RMB 1.066 billion, and RMB 1.276 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] - The corresponding P/E ratios are 10.1x, 8.0x, and 6.7x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] - Long-term growth is expected to be driven by service quality improvements, cargo structure optimization, and cost efficiency [3] Market Performance - The company's closing price was HKD 7.90, with a one-year high/low of HKD 9.28/HKD 3.23 [2] - The total market capitalization was HKD 9,175.17 million, with a circulating market capitalization of HKD 9,175.17 million [2]
安能物流：货量规模持续提升，盈利维持较快增长