YTCO(600066) Zhongyuan Securities·2024-11-17 02:04Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [3][15][6] Core Views - The company experienced significant year-on-year growth in October sales, with a 38.1% increase in bus production and a 43.2% increase in sales, totaling 3,558 and 3,221 units respectively [3] - The demand for new energy buses is accelerating, supported by government policies and subsidies, which are expected to boost sales further [3][6] - The company is positioned as a leader in the new energy bus sector, achieving a market share of 23.1% with a year-on-year sales increase of 63.0% for buses over 6 meters in length [3][6] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 344.24 billion, 398.64 billion, and 465.21 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.47, 1.87, and 2.25 yuan [3][7] - The net profit is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 3,246 million yuan in 2024, 4,138 million yuan in 2025, and 4,985 million yuan in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 78.65%, 27.47%, and 20.46% respectively [7][11] - The company’s gross margin is projected to be around 22.85% in 2024, with a net margin of 9.43% [11] Market Dynamics - The report highlights a robust export performance, with a 69.62% year-on-year increase in bus exports in October, and a total of 6,576 units exported [3] - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, particularly in Latin America, where it has delivered 274 buses to Mexico [3][6] - The overall bus industry is expected to benefit from the recovery of the tourism sector and the implementation of electric vehicle policies, leading to sustained demand growth [3][6]