裕元集团：24 9M制造毛利率创7年新高，上调全年盈利预期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in net profit, with a year-on-year increase of 172.3% to USD 150 million in Q3 2024, driven by a 12.5% increase in overall revenue to USD 2.06 billion [5][6] - The manufacturing gross margin reached a seven-year high, with a gross margin of 24.1%, up 0.6 percentage points [5][6] - The company is expected to maintain a strong performance with projected net profits of USD 470 million, USD 520 million, and USD 570 million for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the manufacturing revenue increased by 23.1% to USD 150 million, with a gross margin improvement of 1.3 percentage points to 20.6% [6] - The overall revenue for Q3 2024 was USD 2.06 billion, with manufacturing and BaoSheng revenues growing by 23.1% and declining by 10.8% respectively [5][6] - The company achieved a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 10.8% and a return on assets (ROA) of 6.5%, both at seven-year highs [5] Production and Sales - Q3 2024 saw a significant increase in shipment volume to 66 million pairs, a year-on-year growth of 29.4% [6] - The average selling price (ASP) decreased by 4.9% year-on-year to USD 20.73, but the decline in price is narrowing [6] - The company is diversifying its production locations, with shipment volume contributions from Indonesia, Vietnam, and mainland China at 53%, 31%, and 11% respectively [6] Retail and Channel Performance - The retail business showed stable profitability, with BaoSheng revenue declining by 10.8% to USD 4 billion, while gross margin improved by 1.5 percentage points to 33.5% [7] - The company has been reducing its workforce and slowing down the pace of store closures, with employee numbers decreasing by 14%, 13%, and 9% in Q1, Q2, and Q3 respectively [7] Valuation and Dividend - The company is projected to have a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10-12x for 2024, translating to a fair value range of HKD 22.79 to HKD 27.35 per share [7] - The expected dividend payout ratio for 2024 is 70%, with a projected dividend yield of 10.0% based on the closing price on November 15 [7]