YTCO(600066)2024-11-18 02:33Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yutong Bus [8][7]. Core Views - Yutong Bus has shown a recovery in sales with September sales reaching 3,788 units, a year-on-year increase of 6.2% and a month-on-month increase of 3.8%. The total sales for the first nine months of 2024 reached 31,346 units, up 19.3% year-on-year [5][6]. - The company is gradually exiting the off-season, with a significant increase in both domestic and export sales, particularly in the new energy segment. In September, the company exported 1,100 units of large and medium buses, including 200 units of new energy buses [5][6]. - The company is expanding its direct sales and service model, which is expected to enhance service quality and efficiency. Yutong plans to establish 43 new direct service centers and 25 direct parts warehouses in 2024 [6][7]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In September, Yutong sold 3,788 buses, with large and medium buses accounting for 3,351 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.8% and a month-on-month increase of 7.1%. For Q3, total sales were 10,791 units, down 3.1% year-on-year and down 15.9% month-on-month [5][6]. - The company’s sales structure is improving, with a notable increase in new energy exports [5]. Market Outlook - The domestic market is expected to recover as it enters the peak procurement period for buses, supported by higher-than-expected policy subsidies and a natural replacement cycle for public buses [5][6]. - The large and medium bus industry saw a year-on-year increase of 22.7% in sales from January to August 2024, with exports growing by 39.8% in the same period [5]. Financial Projections - Yutong's projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 35.1 billion, 42.1 billion, and 50.2 billion respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 14.5X, 12.1X, and 10.2X [7][6]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong cash flow, supporting its high dividend capability [7].