Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group-SW (9618) and raises the target price to 176 HKD from 166 HKD based on the SOTP valuation method [3][19] Core Views - JD Group's revenue growth has rebounded under the trade-in policy, with profits exceeding expectations [2][3] - JD Retail's revenue increased by 6.1% YoY in FY24Q3, driven by growth in active users and shopping frequency, particularly benefiting from the trade-in policy [3] - JD Logistics achieved a significant increase in operating profit margin to 4.7%, with operating profit reaching 2.09 billion RMB, far exceeding market expectations [3] - The company's gross margin improved to 17.3%, up 0.7 percentage points YoY, attributed to higher-margin general merchandise and reduced logistics costs [3] Financial Performance - JD Group's FY24Q3 revenue grew 5.1% YoY to 260.4 billion RMB, with merchandise and service revenues increasing by 5% and 6% respectively [3] - Non-GAAP net profit surged 29.3% YoY to 13.2 billion RMB, surpassing the expected 11.4 billion RMB [3] - JD Logistics' revenue rose 6.6% YoY to 44.4 billion RMB, with cost control measures leading to only a 2.2% YoY increase in costs [3] Business Segment Analysis - JD Retail's revenue reached 225 billion RMB in FY24Q3, with electronics and home appliance sales growing 3% YoY and daily necessities sales increasing 8% YoY [3] - JD Logistics' operating profit margin improved significantly, driven by effective cost management and low single-digit growth in labor costs [3] Valuation and Outlook - JD Group's valuation is supported by its strong supply chain capabilities, which provide efficiency advantages in inventory turnover, gross margin, and fulfillment costs [19] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in consumer spending, with platform ecosystem improvements and content ecosystem development driving future growth [21] - Revenue forecasts for FY2024E, FY2025E, and FY2026E are adjusted to 1,128.2 billion RMB, 1,183.2 billion RMB, and 1,243.0 billion RMB respectively, with adjusted net profits projected at 44.8 billion RMB, 48.0 billion RMB, and 51.7 billion RMB [3][21]
京东集团-SW：京东集团FY24Q3业绩点评：国补政策下收入增长回暖，利润稳健释放