宏观周报2024年11月第三周

Economic Overview - The GDP growth forecast for Q3 2024 is projected at 5.3%, slightly below the expected 5.6%[44] - CPI for October 2024 is expected to remain stable, aligning with market expectations[15] - PPI data indicates a potential easing of inflationary pressures, supporting a stable interest rate outlook[15] Financial Data Insights - New RMB loans in October totaled 500 billion, significantly lower than the expected 609.3 billion and the previous value of 1.59 trillion[34] - Social financing scale reached 1.3958 trillion, below the forecast of 1.4386 trillion and the prior month's 3.7634 trillion[34] - M2 growth rate increased to 7.5%, surpassing the expected 7.0% and previous 6.8%[34] Investment and Consumption Trends - Fixed asset investment for January to October 2024 grew by 3.4%, matching the previous month's growth but slightly below the expected 3.5%[44] - Retail sales in October showed a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, exceeding the forecast of 3.9% and the previous 3.2%[44] - The unemployment rate in urban areas decreased to 5.0% from 5.1% in the previous month[44] Market Reactions - The stock market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 3.52% and the Hang Seng Index falling by 6.28%[32] - The bond market showed stability, with long-term rates remaining steady despite the issuance of local government refinancing bonds[32] - External factors, including U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve statements, influenced market sentiment, leading to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index[15]