CGN MINING(01164) 国证国际证券·2024-11-18 14:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China General Nuclear Power Corporation (1164.HK) with a target price of HKD 2.25 [1][4]. Core Views - The third quarter operational performance met expectations, with a uranium production of 692.6 tons, achieving a completion rate of 97.2%. The report anticipates increased demand for natural uranium due to renewed focus on nuclear power in both China and the U.S. [1][2]. - The report forecasts net profits for the years 2024 to 2026 to be HKD 420.8 million, HKD 849.2 million, and HKD 1 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of HKD 0.055, HKD 0.112, and HKD 0.137 [2][3]. Summary by Sections Production and Sales Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a uranium production of 692.6 tons, with individual mines showing completion rates of 99.4% and 101.6% for specific operations [2]. - New procurement orders signed in Q3 totaled 1,179 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 47.1% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.9%. The sales orders were 1,288 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 43.2% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 44.9% [2]. Financial Performance - The report projects sales revenue to grow from HKD 3.65 billion in FY2022 to HKD 11.92 billion in FY2026, with a growth rate of 101.8% in FY2023 [3]. - The net profit is expected to decline slightly in FY2024 to HKD 420.8 million, before increasing significantly in the following years [3]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a PE ratio forecast of 32.51 for FY2024, decreasing to 13.09 by FY2026, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [3]. - The projected PB ratio is expected to decline from 32.4 in FY2024 to 2.39 in FY2026, suggesting a more favorable valuation over time [3].