3S(605305) 国信证券·2024-11-19 01:42Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Zhongji United (605305 SH) [1][6][20] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance continues to grow rapidly, with optimized order structure [1] - Net profit in the first three quarters increased by 101% YoY, with significant improvement in profitability [1][9] - The company's global layout is progressing steadily, with controllable risks from US trade sanctions [2][19] - Non-wind power sector revenue in the first three quarters has nearly doubled compared to the full year of 2023 [2][19] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - Q1-Q3 revenue reached 934 million yuan, up 33 57% YoY, with net profit of 238 million yuan, up 101 01% YoY [1][9] - Q3 revenue was 364 million yuan, up 40 84% YoY and 10 35% QoQ, with net profit of 98 million yuan, up 166 07% YoY and 19 27% QoQ [1][18] - Gross margin for Q1-Q3 was 48 86%, up 2 77pct YoY, and net margin was 25 51%, up 8 56pct YoY [1][9] - Q3 gross margin was 49 21%, up 3 80pct YoY but down 0 94pct QoQ, while net margin was 26 90%, up 12 66pct YoY and 2 01pct QoQ [1][18] Orders and Market Expansion - New orders in the first three quarters increased by approximately 30% YoY, with overseas market growth outpacing domestic growth [1][18] - Large-load and rack-and-pinion elevator orders accounted for over 30% of total elevator orders in the first three quarters of 2024, up from 20% in 2023 [2][19] - Overseas revenue accounted for over 50% of total revenue in the first half of 2024 [2][19] Non-Wind Power Sector - Non-wind power sector revenue in 2023 was approximately 13 million yuan, a six-fold increase YoY [2][19] - Non-wind power sector revenue in the first three quarters of 2024 was nearly double that of the full year 2023, with a nearly three-fold YoY increase [2][19] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to reach 1 41 billion yuan in 2024E, 1 818 billion yuan in 2025E, and 2 229 billion yuan in 2026E [4][24] - Net profit is forecasted to be 334 million yuan in 2024E, 428 million yuan in 2025E, and 555 million yuan in 2026E [4][24] - EPS is projected to be 1 57 yuan in 2024E, 2 01 yuan in 2025E, and 2 61 yuan in 2026E [4][24] - ROE is expected to be 13 7% in 2024E, 15 6% in 2025E, and 17 8% in 2026E [4][24] Valuation - The current PE ratio is 18x for 2024E, 14x for 2025E, and 11x for 2026E [4][24] - The PB ratio is 2 32x for 2024E, 2 06x for 2025E, and 1 80x for 2026E [4][24]