他山之石系列：中美运营商研究与思考

Core Insights - The profitability of Chinese telecom operators is expected to improve, with significant potential in overseas markets. Compared to major overseas operators, China's three major telecom operators have lower gross and net profit margins due to intense domestic competition and high capital expenditures. However, with the advancement of the "Belt and Road" initiative and enhanced capabilities in exporting 5G solutions, there is considerable potential for growth in overseas business, which may further strengthen their international competitiveness and market influence [6][7]. - China's telecom infrastructure development is leading globally. Since 2019, the three major operators have significantly increased the number of 5G base stations, with China Mobile's count rising from 50,000 in 2019 to 1.94 million in 2023. Overall, China accounted for 65.3% of the global 5G base stations deployed in 2023, demonstrating superior construction speed and quality, which supports the extensive coverage and technological upgrade of domestic 5G networks [6][56]. Global Operator Financial Comparison - The revenue growth rates of Chinese telecom operators are stable despite macroeconomic fluctuations. In the first half of 2024, China Mobile achieved revenue of 546.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3%, while China Telecom and China Unicom reported revenue growths of 2.8% and 2.9%, respectively. In contrast, major US operators like Verizon and AT&T have shown varying performance, with Verizon's revenue declining by 2.1% in 2023 [18][22]. - The gross profit margins of Chinese telecom operators are significantly lower than those of their international counterparts. In 2023, the gross profit margins for China Telecom, China Mobile, and China Unicom were 31.3%, 28.2%, and 24.2%, respectively, compared to 85.2% for AT&T and 59.1% for Verizon [30][31]. Service Capability Comparison - Chinese telecom operators lead in user numbers, with China Mobile having 991 million mobile users, significantly higher than its domestic competitors. The 5G package users also reflect this dominance, with China Mobile having 795 million 5G package users [47][48]. - The average revenue per user (ARPU) for Chinese operators is relatively low compared to global peers, indicating strong growth potential. In 2023, the ARPU for China Mobile was 49.3 yuan, while Verizon's ARPU was 829.7 yuan. However, the ARPU for Chinese operators has been increasing steadily, reaching 46.2 yuan in 2023 [50][51]. Development Outlook for Chinese Operators - The penetration rate of 5G users among the three major operators has increased significantly, with China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom reaching 80.2%, 78.1%, and 78%, respectively, in 2023. This trend indicates a broader user base for 5G networks [71]. - The revenue from emerging businesses is on the rise, with traditional voice and SMS revenues declining. For instance, China Mobile's revenue from emerging businesses grew from 82.54 billion yuan in 2019 to 221.64 billion yuan in 2023 [72]. International Expansion and Cooperation - The "Belt and Road" initiative has facilitated the international expansion of Chinese telecom operators, with significant investments in digital infrastructure in partner countries. In 2023, China's direct investment in Belt and Road countries reached 40.71 billion USD, a 31.5% increase from the previous year [73][74]. - Strategic partnerships with local companies in various sectors, including energy and technology, are being established to enhance the digital economy and infrastructure in Belt and Road countries [79][81].