新股报告：顺丰控股

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Subscribe" rating to the company with a score of 70 out of 100 [10]. Core Insights - The company, SF Holding (6936 HK), is a leading integrated logistics service provider established in 1993, offering comprehensive domestic and international logistics services [1][3]. - The company operates a direct sales model and is independent of major e-commerce platforms, allowing it to serve a diverse client base [1]. - The logistics market is expected to grow, with global and Chinese logistics spending projected to increase at compound annual growth rates of 4.0% and 6.0% respectively from 2023 to 2028 [1][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - SF Holding is the largest integrated logistics service provider in China and Asia, and the fourth largest globally, holding a 0.7% share of the global market [1]. - The company reported revenue growth from CNY 207.2 billion in 2021 to CNY 258.4 billion in 2023, with net profit increasing from CNY 473 million to CNY 8.23 billion during the same period [1]. Industry Outlook - The logistics market is fragmented, with the top ten service providers holding only 7.6% of the market share [1]. - The report cites a forecasted decline in China's logistics spending as a percentage of global spending from 24.3% in 2023 to 24.1% in 2028, while the share for Asia (excluding China) is expected to rise from 21.2% to 23.8% [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company reported a revenue increase of 8.1% to CNY 134.4 billion, with net profit rising 15.1% to CNY 4.81 billion [3]. - The company’s net profit margin improved slightly from 3.4% to 3.6% [3]. Valuation Level - The company’s 2023 price-to-earnings ratio is estimated to be between 18.0 and 20.2 times, which is considered mid-range among its peers [4]. - The report notes that the valuation of H-shares is not particularly attractive compared to A-shares, which have a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 25 times [4]. Market Sentiment - The report highlights a mixed sentiment in the Hong Kong IPO market, with a first-day loss rate of 37.9% for new listings this year [7]. - The company has secured ten cornerstone investors, which is expected to bolster market confidence [7].