TRIP.COM(09961) 中国银河·2024-11-21 01:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, with an adjusted PE of 17X/16X/13X for 2024-2026 [3][7] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching RMB 15.9 billion, a 16% YoY increase, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 6.8 billion, a 47% YoY increase [2] - The strong summer travel demand drove high growth across all business segments, with accommodation booking revenue increasing by 22% YoY and 32% QoQ to RMB 6.8 billion [2] - Outbound travel business recovery surpassed market levels, reaching 120% of 2019 levels, with international OTA platform revenue growing 60% YoY, accounting for 9% of total revenue [2] - The company's gross margin improved to 82%, driven by the strong growth of hotel booking and international business segments, with Non-GAAP net profit margin reaching 38%, the highest in nearly a decade [3] Business Segments - Accommodation booking: Revenue of RMB 6.8 billion, up 22% YoY and 32% QoQ [2] - Transportation ticketing: Revenue of RMB 5.7 billion, up 5% YoY and 16% QoQ [2] - Travel vacation: Revenue of RMB 1.6 billion, up 17% YoY and 52% QoQ [2] - Corporate travel management: Revenue of RMB 700 million, up 11% YoY and 4% QoQ [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow to RMB 52.4 billion in 2024, RMB 60.5 billion in 2025, and RMB 69.0 billion in 2026, with growth rates of 17.7%, 15.5%, and 14.0% respectively [5] - Non-GAAP net profit is projected to be RMB 19.2 billion in 2024, RMB 20.4 billion in 2025, and RMB 24.4 billion in 2026 [5] - Adjusted diluted EPS is forecasted to be RMB 28.04 in 2024, RMB 29.77 in 2025, and RMB 35.66 in 2026 [5] Profitability and Efficiency - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 82% from 2024 to 2026 [12] - Non-GAAP net profit margin is projected to increase from 32.99% in 2024 to 32.96% in 2026 [12] - ROE is forecasted to improve from 12.39% in 2024 to 12.57% in 2026, reflecting enhanced profitability and operational efficiency [12]