Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company [4][9] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 4.99 billion, a YoY increase of 51.3%, exceeding expectations [2] - Core OTA business revenue was RMB 4.01 billion, up 21.6% YoY, in line with expectations [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 790 million, a YoY increase of 55.5% [2] - Non-GAAP net profit was RMB 910 million, up 46.6% YoY [2] - Hotel take rate improvement drove revenue growth in the accommodation booking segment, with international room nights increasing by 130% YoY [2] - Transportation ticketing revenue reached a historical high of RMB 2.03 billion, driven by a 110% YoY increase in international air ticket volume [2] - Other revenue grew 23.7% YoY to RMB 610 million, supported by strong growth in hotel management and online vacation businesses [2] - The company's average monthly paying users reached 46.4 million, a 5% YoY increase, with ARPU rising to around RMB 70, up RMB 6 QoQ [3] - Non-GAAP net margin was 18%, with core OTA platform margin reaching 31%, a post-pandemic high [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 17.212 billion in 2024E to RMB 24.166 billion in 2026E, with a CAGR of 18.5% [6] - Non-GAAP net profit is projected to increase from RMB 2.732 billion in 2024E to RMB 4.468 billion in 2026E [6] - Adjusted diluted EPS is forecasted to grow from RMB 1.18 in 2024E to RMB 1.92 in 2026E [6] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decline from 14.01X in 2024E to 8.57X in 2026E [6] Business Performance - Accommodation booking revenue grew 22.2% YoY to RMB 1.38 billion, outperforming ADR and overall hotel industry growth [2] - Vacation segment revenue reached RMB 980 million [2] - The company has 230 million annual paying users and 1.88 billion annual cumulative service users, up 3.4% and 19.9% YoY respectively [3] - Gross margin was 63% in Q3 2024, down 11.2 ppts YoY but only 1.2 ppts QoQ [3] - Sales and marketing expenses as a percentage of revenue decreased by 9.1 ppts YoY to 29% [3]
同程旅行：Q3利润率如期改善，盈利能力提升