Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][9]. Core Insights - The company's core business has shown significant improvement in profitability, with a year-on-year increase in per-customer contribution. In Q3 2024, the OTA operating profit margin improved by 6 percentage points, outperforming Bloomberg's expectations [1][7]. - The company's revenue for Q3 2024 reached 4.99 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 790 million yuan and an adjusted net profit of 910 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 51.3%, 55.5%, and 46.6%, respectively [1][7]. - The OTA platform revenue was 4.01 billion yuan, up 21.6%, with an operating profit margin of 31.1%, a significant improvement from previous quarters [1][7]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's GMV for Q3 2024 was 72.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%. This growth was primarily influenced by structural impacts from industry pricing, with air ticket prices declining but ticket volumes increasing by over 20% [1][8]. - The company has focused on enhancing user value and purchase frequency through refined subsidy strategies, resulting in a 15.9% increase in the average purchase frequency per user over the past 12 months [1][8]. - The number of "Black Whale" members reached 78 million by the end of Q3, a 16.7% increase from Q2, with their average revenue per user (ARPU) being over 2.7 times that of regular members [1][8]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been raised to 2.75 billion, 3.28 billion, and 3.83 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding dynamic P/E ratios of 14, 12, and 10 times [2][9]. - The company is expected to benefit from low-cost traffic from the WeChat ecosystem and the penetration of lower-tier markets, while also needing to monitor the effectiveness of new channel cultivation and the pace of international business expansion [1][9].
同程旅行：核心业务盈利较大改善，单客贡献同比提升