Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company is a benchmark enterprise in the aluminum formwork industry, established in 2011, with main businesses including aluminum formwork, climbing frame leasing, and PC precast components, covering the support system [1][22] - The demand side benefits from the recovery of real estate demand, while the supply side concentration continues to increase, with the company holding a market share of only 4-5% in 2023 [1] - The company has a strong technological competitive edge, with a comprehensive information system that enhances efficiency and competitive advantage [1] - The overseas business is expected to drive revenue growth, with significant room for gross margin recovery, indicating both elasticity and certainty in performance [1] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has maintained rapid growth from 2014 to 2022, with revenue increasing from 57.43 million to 1.93 billion yuan, corresponding to a CAGR of 55.2% [30] - The net profit attributable to the parent company rose from 10 million to 177 million yuan, with a net profit margin consistently above 10% [30] Industry Analysis - The demand for aluminum formwork is expected to benefit from the recovery of real estate, with new construction area projected to increase by 3% in 2025 and 4% in 2026 [42] - The penetration rate of aluminum formwork in mid-to-high-rise buildings is currently around 35%, with significant room for growth compared to developed countries [47] - The market for aluminum formwork is projected to expand by 111%, with a potential market size of 630 billion yuan [56] Financial Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 90.39 million, 206.57 million, and 311.81 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 299.6%, 128.5%, and 51.0% [8] - The expected revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 2.37 billion, 2.78 billion, and 3.26 billion yuan, with growth rates of 5.87%, 17.23%, and 17.40% [8] Innovation and Growth Drivers - The report highlights the company's focus on improving gross margins through better management efficiency and the potential for increased turnover of non-standard products [11] - The company has set ambitious overseas revenue targets of 500 million, 1 billion, and 1.5 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1]
志特新材：深度研究：需求复苏毛利率扩张，兼具弹性及确定性