Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057.HK) [1] Core Views - ZTO Express reported a revenue of 31.36 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.8%. The net profit for the same period was 6.44 billion yuan, a slight decline of 1.6% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 10.68 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.6%, and a net profit of 2.38 billion yuan, up 1.3% year-on-year [1] - The customer structure continues to optimize, leading to an increase in revenue per package. In Q3 2024, the revenue per package was 1.20 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, driven by an increase in direct customer revenue [1] - The company has adjusted its full-year package volume growth forecast to between 11.6% and 12.3%, corresponding to 33.7 billion to 33.9 billion packages, due to current market conditions [1] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - For Q1-Q3 2024, ZTO Express achieved a revenue of 31.36 billion yuan, a 12.8% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.44 billion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year. Q3 2024 revenue was 10.68 billion yuan, up 17.6% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.38 billion yuan, up 1.3% year-on-year [1] Operational Analysis - The company saw a 15.9% year-on-year increase in business volume in Q3 2024, reaching 8.72 billion packages. The market share decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 20% year-on-year but increased by 0.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - The cost per package remained stable at 0.82 yuan, with transportation costs decreasing to 0.39 yuan and transfer costs to 0.25 yuan, contributing to a gross margin increase of 1.4 percentage points to 31.2% [1] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised down to 9.5 billion yuan, 11.5 billion yuan, and 13.1 billion yuan, respectively, from previous estimates of 10.5 billion yuan, 12.1 billion yuan, and 13.6 billion yuan. The "Buy" rating is maintained despite these adjustments [1]
中通快递-W：单票收入提升，Q3业绩小幅增长