国能日新：公司深度报告：核心业务增长稳健，第二成长曲线未来可期

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Guoneng Rixin (301162) with a target price range of 28.8 to 65 CNY, indicating a potential upside of 40% [3][4]. Core Insights - Guoneng Rixin is positioned in the renewable energy sector, focusing on software and information services, particularly in power forecasting products. The company is expanding into related innovative products such as energy trading, smart storage, and virtual power plants, creating a significant growth matrix [3][4]. - The company benefits from a robust growth trajectory in its core business, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.96% in revenue and 18.47% in net profit from 2019 to 2023. The revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 588 million, 749 million, and 950 million CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.9%, 27.4%, and 26.8% [4][17][32]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Guoneng Rixin has been deeply involved in the renewable energy information sector since its establishment in 2008, initially focusing on energy-saving systems for thermal power plants and later expanding into renewable energy software development [19][20]. Main Business - The company primarily provides power forecasting products, which account for 58.7% of its revenue. It also offers smart grid management systems and energy trading support services [22][24][32]. Financial Analysis - The company has shown stable growth in revenue and net profit, with a CAGR of 21.96% in revenue and 18.47% in net profit from 2019 to 2023. The gross profit margin has remained stable, while net profit margin has seen some fluctuations due to increased operational costs [30][36][37]. Market Trends - As of June 2024, the total installed capacity of renewable energy in China reached 1.653 billion kW, accounting for 53.8% of the total power generation capacity. The growth in installed capacity for solar and wind power continues to drive demand for the company's forecasting services [16][17]. Competitive Advantages - Guoneng Rixin holds a leading position in the power forecasting market due to its early entry, significant R&D investment, and a well-structured team that allows for rapid adaptation to market changes [17][19].