TRIP.COM(09961) 国证国际证券·2024-11-22 01:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Trip.com Group (9961 HK/TCOM US) with an updated target price of HKD 571 (9961 HK) and USD 73 (TCOM US) based on a 16x 2025 P/E ratio [1][3][6] Core Views - Trip com Group s 3Q24 net profit exceeded expectations by 40 25 compared to the report s and market estimates respectively driven by improved operational efficiency and effective cost control [1][2] - The company s domestic hotel ADR decline narrowed to low single digits while supply increased by approximately 7 YoY International hotel and air ticket bookings exceeded 2019 levels by over 20 [1][2] - The report is optimistic about Trip com s steady growth prospects in 2025 with expected revenue growth of 16 and adjusted net profit margins maintaining above 30 [3] Business Segment Highlights - Accommodation Booking: Domestic hotel ADR decline narrowed to low single digits compared to a double digit decline in 2Q24 Domestic platform hotel supply grew 6 7 YoY [2] - Transportation Ticketing: Revenue growth accelerated significantly compared to previous quarters contributing 36 of total revenue [2] - Package Tours: Revenue reached RMB 1 56 billion up 17 52 YoY QoQ recovering to 95 of 3Q19 levels Outbound package tour revenue grew over 100 YoY [2] - Corporate Travel: Revenue increased 11 4 YoY QoQ to RMB 660 million with continued growth in customer numbers [2] International Business - Outbound hotel and air ticket bookings exceeded 2019 levels by 20 while international passenger traffic recovered to 93 of 3Q19 levels [3] - Trip com s international OTA platform saw over 60 YoY growth in hotel and air ticket bookings with the Asia Pacific region accounting for approximately 70 of bookings Inbound hotel bookings grew 100 YoY [3] - International OTA platform revenue contributed 9 to the group s total revenue with cross selling rates from air tickets to hotels continuing to improve [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow 16 YoY in 2025 driven by domestic supply advantages and higher user spending post pandemic 3Q24 user spending increased 20 compared to pre pandemic levels [3] - Adjusted net profit is projected to maintain above 30 with AI driven operational efficiency improvements [3] - Key financial metrics for 2025E include revenue of RMB 61 18 billion adjusted net profit of RMB 21 7 billion and an adjusted net profit margin of 35 5 [5][13] Valuation - The target price is based on a 16x 2025 P/E ratio reflecting confidence in the company s growth trajectory and profitability [3][6] - The report highlights Trip com s strong market position and operational efficiency as key drivers for its valuation [3]