美国就业市场观察（一）：供给冲击后就业市场呈现一些新变化

Labor Market Trends - The Federal Reserve's focus is shifting from inflation to the labor market, with potential faster rate cuts if the labor market cools too quickly[2][9] - The US labor market has experienced significant supply shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic and increased immigration, impacting labor force participation and population growth[10][98] - Unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls exhibit cyclical patterns, with the current unemployment rate at 4.1%, below the natural rate of 4.4%[11][123] Unemployment and Economic Indicators - The Sahm Rule, which historically signals recessions when triggered, was activated in July but the US economy has not yet entered a recession[12][132] - Non-farm payroll revisions turning negative typically precede recessions, but the current cycle shows no recession despite negative revisions[13][170] - The divergence between employer and household surveys has widened, with the household survey indicating a weaker labor market[13][186] Labor Supply and Demographics - The US labor force is increasingly reliant on foreign-born population growth, which has outpaced native-born population growth in recent years[109][112] - COVID-19 caused a significant decline in the working-age population, with a net loss of 280,000 in 2021 and only a 40,000 increase in 2022[102][104] - Labor force participation rates have declined, particularly among older age groups, contributing to a shrinking effective labor supply[54][67] Economic Resilience and Risks - The labor market's resilience may help the Federal Reserve achieve a "soft landing," avoiding a recession despite tightening monetary policy[2][170] - Risks include a sudden economic downturn due to high interest rates and geopolitical tensions, which could lead to rapid rate cuts[207]