Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express is "Buy" [1] Core Views - ZTO Express reported a package volume of 8.723 billion in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.9% [1] - The adjusted net profit for Q3 2024 was 2.387 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.0% [1] - The company aims to maintain high-quality service and customer satisfaction while regaining market share and expanding its leading position in package volume [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Package Volume - In Q3 2024, ZTO Express achieved a package volume of 8.723 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 15.9% [1] - The company expects to guide its total package volume to 33.7 billion for the year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.6% [1] Pricing and Revenue - The core revenue per package (excluding freight forwarding) was 1.20 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.83% [1] - The single-package core cost decreased by 0.06 yuan year-on-year, benefiting from economies of scale and operational efficiencies [1] Profitability - The adjusted net profit per package was 0.28 yuan, showing a year-on-year decline, primarily due to a tax refund received in Q3 2023 [1] - The company maintained a healthy operating cash flow per package at 0.36 yuan, despite a year-on-year decrease of 8.7% [1] Financial Forecasts - The projected net profit for the years 2024 to 2026 is expected to be 10.204 billion, 10.971 billion, and 12.521 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.63%, 7.52%, and 14.13% [2] - The expected revenue for 2024 is 43.179 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.39% [2] Market Outlook - The express delivery industry continues to have growth potential, with ZTO Express expected to steadily increase its market share [1] - The expansion of e-commerce and the rise of live-streaming commerce are anticipated to drive further growth in package volumes [1]
中通快递-W：中通快递点评：坚持高质量发展，Q3单票经营利润维稳