Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057.HK) [6][10]. Core Insights - ZTO Express reported a business volume of 8.723 billion pieces in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.9%, although its market share decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 20.0% [1]. - The company adjusted its annual business volume guidance for 2024 to between 33.7 billion and 33.9 billion pieces, with a projected Q4 volume of 9.35 to 9.55 billion pieces, indicating a growth rate of 7.5% to 9.8% [1]. - The increase in low-value e-commerce packages poses challenges to the company's strategy of achieving synchronized growth in service quality, business volume, and profits [1]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - In Q3, ZTO's single-package revenue was CNY 1.19, up 1.9% year-on-year, driven by an increase in direct customer revenue, particularly in the parcel business, which saw over 40% growth [2]. - The company’s single-package core cost decreased by approximately CNY 0.06 year-on-year, with transportation costs down 9.7% and sorting costs down 6.4% [2]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin improved by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year to 31.2% in Q3, attributed to revenue growth and cost optimization [3]. - However, the net profit margin slightly declined due to increased operating expenses and tax fees [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts ZTO's net profit for 2024-2026 to be CNY 93.83 billion, CNY 117.18 billion, and CNY 133.70 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.5X, 10.0X, and 8.8X [3][7]. - ZTO's strong brand recognition and customer satisfaction allow it to maintain a premium on revenue, avoiding the pitfalls of industry cost competition [3].
中通快递-W：散客业务高增长，核心成本持续优化